Nigeria on the brink

By David L. Phillips  |  December 28, 2006

A VORTEX of poverty, corruption, and abuse threatens to spark widespread violence in the oil-rich Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Demanding local control of the region's vast energy wealth, militants have recently stepped up attacks on off-shore oil platforms as well as hostage-taking. Despite recent party conventions designating presidential candidates, many Nigerians are skeptical that elections will actually occur. They warn that violence in the Niger Delta could spiral out of control if President Olesegun Obasanjo tries to hang onto power by postponing the ballot or by rigging the constitution to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.

Since 1956, Nigeria has earned more than $300 billion from Niger Delta energy development. In addition to the world's seventh largest supply of natural gas, Nigeria has 40 billion barrels of low-sulfur "sweet" crude, which is much sought after by refineries in the United States. It is the fifth-largest supplier of oil to the United States.

Despite the oil windfall, Nigeria has some of the worst social indicators worldwide. Energy exports provide nearly three-quarters of government revenues. However, unemployment in the oil-producing areas is as high as 90 percent. Schools and hospitals in the Niger Delta lack staff, equipment, and supplies. Most riverine areas are off the electricity grid.

An environmental crisis also fuels local anger. More than 4,000 oil spills discharging at least two million barrels of crude have occurred in the Niger Delta since 1960. Blow outs affect creeks, streams, and related traditional sources of livelihood, poisoning the water supply, destroying mangrove forests, eroding soil plots, and killing aquatic life. Many residents suffer from respiratory ailments resulting from oil poisoning as well as a plethora of water-borne diseases such as malaria and dysentery.

Many youths -- disenfranchised by rigged elections in 1999 and 2003 -- have joined local militias that threaten to disassociate from Nigeria. As a result of recent violence and the kidnapping of international oil workers, Nigeria's overall production of petroleum has been reduced by 25 percent.

Nigeria's problems are compounded by rampant corruption. Federal and state governments have stolen or wasted $380 billion since the country became independent in 1960; 31 of the 36 state governors are under investigation for crimes and corruption. Since 1969, Nigeria's military governments centralized control of the oil industry under the presidency. Obasanjo is, however, the first head of state to also serve as oil minister, further limiting public scrutiny of the country's oil sector.

More serious problems lie ahead if last week's stage-managed primary of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is any measure of Nigeria's progress toward democracy. Though Nigeria's Senate rejected Obasanjo's proposal to revise the constitution allowing a third term, there is widespread speculation that PDP leaders may provoke a national crisis to justify a delay or annulment of presidential elections scheduled for April 2007.

A recent report by the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity warns that the elections should not be postponed or the constitution amended. It calls on the international community to impress upon Obasanjo the opprobrium Nigeria would face if he manipulates events to try to hang onto power.

The report also emphasizes more equitable development. It proposes that international oil companies -- Shell, Mobil, Chevron, Agip, Elf, and Texaco -- publish audits of their operations in the Niger Delta. The report also recommends that oil companies establish a "Community Investment Fund" channeling a specific percentage of gross revenues to local community organizations working in health, education, micro-credit, and infrastructure development.

Noting the corrosive affect of corruption, the report proposes a more robust role for official anticorruption bodies and calls on donors to support anticorruption monitoring groups. It urges the government to prosecute high-profile violators, including presidential allies, and to reduce the number of officials covered by constitutional immunity.

The United States has an interest in promoting Nigeria's democratic development. Nigeria is deeply divided by ethnic, religious, and resource-based conflicts. If it falls apart, Al-Qaeda linked organizations may surface in the Muslim North. The United States and other international stakeholders should emphasize peace, equity, and development in the Niger Delta lest violence there spreads across Nigeria and spills over its borders, destabilizing other fragile West African states.

David L. Phillips is executive director of the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity.